The Economist

Desperate to keep the war in Gaza from engulfing his country, Lebanon’s prime minister, Najib Mikati, is launching a peace plan. He has been touring the region’s capitals and speaking to Western diplomats and politicians in an attempt to persuade them to explore ways of staving off an escalation of violence. In particular he wants to prevent Hizbullah, a Shia Muslim militia which is Lebanon’s most powerful force, from joining the fray against Israel and triggering a regional conflagration. “I’m putting all my pressure locally, regionally and internationally to prevent war,” says Mr Mikati from his office in Beirut, Lebanon’s capital.

In an interview with The Economist, he outlines a skeletal three-point plan. First, he wants a humanitarian pause, lasting five days. Hamas would free some of its hostages, primarily civilians and foreigners, while Israel would hold fire and allow humanitarian aid into Gaza. Hamas would stop firing rockets. If the ceasefire held, they would move to a second stage and make it permanent. With the help of intermediaries, Israel and Hamas could also negotiate a prisoners-for-hostages swap. Western and regional leaders would then begin work on the third stage: an international peace conference for a two-state settlement for Israel and Palestine. “We will consider the right of Israel and the right of the Palestinians,” he says. “It’s time to make peace possible in the whole region.”

As war fever rages across the Middle East, many Arabs will flinch at Mr Mikati’s implicit recognition of the Jewish state. But this is not the first time an Arab leader has tabled a peace plan in war. At the height of the second Palestinian intifada, or uprising, Abdullah bin Abdulaziz, the Saudi crown prince who later became king, launched his Arab Peace Initiative. This proposed a full normalisation of Arab relations with Israel in return for a full withdrawal from the territories Israel has occupied since it won a war in 1967. Arab leaders endorsed this plan at a summit in Beirut in 2002.

Mr Mikati’s plan goes a step further by including Iran, the chief orchestrator of what it calls “the axis of resistance” to Israel, referring to its network of proxy forces across the region including Hizbullah. “The Iranians will be part of a comprehensive peace,” he insists. Mr Mikati was among the first to meet Iran’s foreign minister, Hossein Amirabdollahian, in the early days of the current Gaza war. And Hizbullah, Iran’s closest regional proxy, is part of Mr Mikati’s government. “If we have [an agreement on] international and comprehensive peace, I am sure Hizbullah and Hamas will lay down their weapons,” he says.

A confidant of Mr Mikati says his connections in the West, the Gulf and Iran make him uniquely placed to sell an inclusive plan. He says he has discussed it with the foreign ministers of America, Britain and France, and has had a warm response. On October 29th Mr Mikati went to Qatar to discuss his plan with the Gulf state’s leader, who has been at the centre of a flurry of diplomatic activity. (Qatar also hosted David Barnea, the head of Mossad, Israel’s foreign intelligence service.)

One snag is that Mr Mikati lacks clout. He presides over a broken and bankrupt country, which even he describes as “fake”. Lebanon has no president. And its own regular army is no match for Hizbullah. And the rising death toll of Palestinians in Gaza also dims the immediate prospects for peace. Hamas has appealed to Hizbullah to open a second front. Sporadic exchanges of fire have been taking place across Lebanon’s border with Israel for several weeks, resulting in the deaths of about 50 Hizbullah fighters and seven Israeli soldiers. The Shia militia has fired rockets mainly at military targets and has shied away from shooting at Israel’s northern cities such as Haifa or Safed. But many fear that Hassan Nasrallah, Hizbullah’s leader, may broaden the conflict when he gives a long-awaited address on November 3rd.

Some of Mr Mikati’s own Sunni Muslim co-religionists are calling for military action in support of Hamas. In recent days the little-known armed wing of Jamaa Islamiya, a Sunni Islamist group, has told its supporters to mobilise alongside Hizbullah on Israel’s border. According to a recent Lebanese survey, a third of Lebanon’s Sunnis, as well as half of its Shias (but only 13% of Christians), are in favour of going to war with Israel.

Still, most Lebanese still fear being dragged back into another of the Arab-Israeli wars that have crippled Lebanon. Much of southern Lebanon and southern Beirut was destroyed when Hizbullah last fought a war against Israel in 2006. Many Lebanese trace a downward spiral from then to their national crisis today. A settlement of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict would not only bring relief to the two main antagonists, says Mr Mikati, but to their neighbours as well. As he puts it: “Enough of forever wars.”